Eduardo López
Today the urban poor are urbanizing faster than the rest of the population. Scenarios focused on the poor most likely anticipate that half of the nearly one billion people living in deprivation and different types of deficiencies in the world will remain poor all his life and eventually to transfer their poverty status to their children ( Outsights , 2004).
However, these trends do not necessarily have to be. There are signs of change in some cities and countries that give rise to some optimism. In the next fifty years, Brazil, Russia, India and China - economies called BRIC countries and now represent 42 percent of the world's population - may become a major strength of the global economy ( Hawksworth & Cookson , 2008).
According to the latest economic projections based on a scenario of sustained economic growth, China overtook the United States as the world's largest economy in the year 2025 ( Pricewaterhouse Coopers , 2006) is that time India's most populous country in the world and thanks to that demographic and important efforts in human capital formation is estimated that for 2015 has a faster growth rate than China and by 2050 become the third largest economy in the world, Brazil is the Latin American country to grow faster with technology in some areas, abundant energy resources and a stable system of government, so you can overtake Italy, France, England and Germany between 2025 and 2035, to develop an economy similar to that of Japan in 2050 ( Wilson & Purushothaman , 2003), Russia will continue using its energy resources as a lever to increase its global influence, it is estimated that by 2050 the country has the highest per capita GDP of the BRIC group and an economy whose size is comparable with that of the G6.
If things go well in these countries, ie, if the BRICs maintain policies and develop institutions that support economic growth, create conditions to produce better educational levels, and establishing pro-poor policies, it is likely that poverty can be reduced significantly in the next twenty years.
is true that factors either political, economic, environmental and other various events that can shape and alter the projections. For example, the threat of significant decline in working age population and the rapid aging of the population in general (Russia and China), energy conflicts (Russia, India and China), poor infrastructure development, crime and corruption ( Russia, Brazil), difficulties in maintaining a cohesive national policy (Russia and China), to reduce regional asymmetries problems with ethnic and social conflicts and the emergence of regional insurgencies (India), etc. ( NIC , 2008).
Without underestimating the importance of these threats and challenges, it is possible to believe that the leaders of these countries will know organize appropriate institutional responses, creating greater stability by establishing strong institutions, improving training standards and developing and maintaining the institutional, political and economic need to grow.
Other BRIC countries may register positive changes in the future if we begin today with economic reforms, social and political steps to break with past and current trends continue as they are, if not announce good news. The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean must embark on a program of human capital formation, finding creative and sustainable ways to provide access to higher education by channeling investment and savings by the private and social sectors and participation increasing public sector. Should also introduce tax reforms and counter-cyclical policy design innovative social programs ( Burdman , 2004). African countries must find ways to use its population growth (which is the fastest in the world) to fuel its economic growth. They should also diversify their economies and use technology more productively and improve their governance systems to better manage their natural resources.
These advantages and opportunities to generate greater economic prosperity generated optimism, provided that address poverty and inequality at the same time as countries grow economically. In their recent study on the state of the world's cities UN-HABITAT shows that it is possible to reduce levels of urban inequality while enjoying positive economic growth. Countries as diverse Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia and Rwanda taught us that economic inequality is not necessarily a consequence of economic development, and instead of reducing these inequalities turns out to be a good strategy for economic growth.
There are also, on the other hand, promising signs of a new trend that aims to review the concept of development priorities and to redefine the notion of growth. It is already a clear stream of change and the concept of welfare is gradually expanded beyond the reductive notion of economic prosperity. Other terms such as happiness, subjective well-being or social welfare will take more importance not only in political discourse, but also how to understand and measure the development of societies. Initiatives taken as equally important as the human heart will ever more fully in international cooperation policies as notion of human security understood as a way of protecting people from critical threats and generalized to human life, livelihood and dignity ( Japan , 2007).
is very likely in this regard that closer links between these concepts and others such as inequality, vulnerability and insecurity, accompanied by public policies with new criteria in terms of cost-benefit and impact of programs. However, future trends that simple with clear and direct as it seems too good to be true. The ability to reduce poverty and build more compact cities and sustainable, made with a human geography of hope, solidarity and dignity may require first that the differences become more evident, the major risks and social and economic costs high, ie more conflicts, social unrest and above all a greater insight to both rich and poor in the difficult, costly, uncomfortable and disturbing it is to live with such social and economic asymmetries.
The imperative of fighting poverty will not be because only one approach to the moral conscience, but also and especially as part of a fact essential to sustain the process of globalization and as a prerequisite for maintaining social stability. That is, it is likely that the changes in social behavior more ethical obey gradual changes that revolutionary social progress. However, even though these changes are promoted by other interests not on ethical grounds, they are likely to influence the development of a new ethos that may have the strength to promote new social contract where individual behavior, social and corporate focus more on humans. Some trends identified suggest a review of the role of philanthropy in the world, not just the most media celebrities, but also the foundations and some corporations are already responding to their corporate social responsibility commitments.
is also very likely that non-state actors such as community networks and associations of different social groups continue to act globally, regionally or nationally demanding social change through nonviolent means issues such as inequality, poverty, social justice and climate change, among others. These social movements encourage camaraderie and spirit of partnership in pursuit of equal opportunities. It is also very plausible that arises an increased number of local coalitions in various cities, operating in particular areas related to their own agendas, where trust, a sense of community, identity and other forms of urban social capital awaken a genuine interest in solving community problems.
probably change in the flow of politicians, the international community and others could follow a similar transformation: "the tide rises and lifts all boats." However, a change of this nature implies a new political attitude where companies, corporations, individuals, even whole cities, adopt and use the declaration of human rights, extending the use and enjoyment of natural resources, health rights, and even right of access to capital ( Outsights , 2004). Otherwise economic growth in the world of the BRICs and other countries could become a zero sum game with no clear advantages in terms of more comprehensive social development.
reasons exist for optimism that the walls and fortifications fall, wiping out the front and back of the cities that normally can not see or touch: poverty on one hand and wealth the other. However, to cease to exist City top and bottom colloquially characterized as the separation will be necessary to formulate economic policies for the urban poor have in mind, more inclusive governance schemes and investing in public goods and services for the poor and the vulnerable. This is a feasible scenario that requires forms of modern and efficient government, with clear rules which derive obligations, responsibilities and institutional respect for all.
which is also required local governments to work closely with the central authorities. It is desirable but unlikely in the coming years, cities institutionalize partnerships and develop inter-city joint programs cooperative competitiveness to give greater visibility to local, while enhancing regional development. These networks of cities should be articulated with the central government and work with them to achieve a different and powerful articulation of different levels of government.
A substantial probability scenario is that the erection of a new social contract that speaks of a responsible society, a new social ethos with a renewed society established a pact between local authorities and inhabitants defining rights, obligations and mutual responsibilities, which on one hand the authorities undertake to ensure better efficiency, equity, transparency in the exercise of their functions and, on the other hand, forcing the inhabitants to show greater responsibility for the participation of civil life.
